Quantitative

Backtesting methodology, statistics, anti-overfit practice, position sizing, and full system papers.

·9 min read

Multiple-Testing Correction in Strategy Research: The Problem of Spurious Findings

Testing many trading rules on historical data will produce apparent winners purely by chance, a problem known as multiple comparisons bias. When one hundred rules are backtested, approximately

·11 min read

Backtesting and the Three Systematic Biases

Backtesting is the practice of applying a trading strategy to historical market data to estimate its past performance and gauge its potential future profitability. While backtesting can identify

·9 min read

Position Sizing: Fixed Fractional, Kelly Criterion, and Why Full Kelly Hurts

**Abstract**: Position sizing determines what fraction of an account's capital to risk on each trade. Fixed fractional and Kelly Criterion represent two distinct mechanical approaches, with Kelly offering

·5 min read

An Anti-Overfit Protocol for Strategy Backtesting on TradingView

A lab for testing NQ intraday strategies in TradingView's Strategy Tester with pre-registered parameters, capped optimization tries, single-read validation, and repaint-proof Pine code.

·5 min read

Auditing Your Own Edge: Results From a Cross-Asset Backtesting Program

What a pre-registered, holdout-protected backtesting program found across stocks, crypto, and intraday strategies - including the audited numbers, the deflation caveats, and the long list of ideas it killed.

·5 min read

A Committee of Agents for Prediction-Market Trading: Design of a Paper-Only Kalshi System

How a whole-exchange Kalshi scanner routes every candidate trade through a five-analyst committee, six parallel sizing books, and a mandatory human review, and why it publishes no performance claims yet.

·5 min read

Quant Core, Human Gate: An AI Investor-Committee for Daily Stock Plans

A daily stock system that pairs a validated quantitative confidence score with an AI 'investor committee' doing catalyst research, and a hard plan-only rule: the system never places an order.